The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach berated him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.